A national poll released this week shows that the U.S. Senate race between Democrat Mark Udall of Boulder and Bob Schaffer of Fort Collins is within the margin of error (4.5 points), with Udall up 47 percent to Schaffer's 43.
The poll, taken on July 22nd, is good news for Schaffer, coming just a month after Rasmussen showed Udall up by nearly ten. If "leaners" (voters who say they are inclined to support one candidate over another) are factored in, Schaffer gains three points, though the margin stands at 49 to 46 percent still in Udall's favor.
The Schaffer camp quickly lept into action Wednesday to publicize the latest numbers in a blast e-mail. "A month of widespread, constant negative attack ads by Boulder Liberal Mark Udall’s environmental extremist allies, not to mention more than a million dollars in ads by Boulder Liberal Udall himself, and yet just yesterday afternoon a new national poll shows that we're in a statistical dead heat," it read.
Rasmussen has closely watched the race to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Wayne Allard, seen nationally as a toss up with important implications, including the potential to determine partisan control of the U.S. Senate. In May, after an extremely ugly anti-Schaffer series in the Denver Post, Rasmussen showed Udall's lead up to nearly double digits; in May, Udall led by six, with prior polling showing the race a dead heat.
The portion of the poll most telling concerns unaffiliated voters, who according to Rasmussen, are souring on Udall. Today, Udall leads these voters by just four points. A month ago, his margin stood at a 21-point advantage. In addition, Schaffer's favorable ratings with all voters have climbed seven points in the last month, now equal to Udall's 54 percent (meanwhile, Udall's favorable rating has dropped two points).
In Colorado, the number of unaffiliated voters has grown by 11 percent since 2004. They now account for the second largest block of voters in the state. Meanwhile, the GOP’s registration advantage has declined by 2 percent in this same time period. As of April, the state's voter registration roll showed 1,015,993 Republicans, 893,472 Democrats and 1,008,675 unaffiliated voters.
Mark the Liberal
On July 27th, 2008 Pachy69 says:
The fact that Udall and Boulder are so closely associated is an insurmountable obstacle for him. Add in the fact that as a Democrat in the current Congress, Mark is part of the problem, not the solution, and hasn't really shown that he can do anything to set himself apart from the current Dems in the Senate.