A weekend Associated Press report naming potential candidates for Colorado's 4th Congressional District in 2010 missed at least two top contenders. The seat, now in play after Democrat Betsy Markey knocked off incumbent Republican Marilyn Musgrave this month, had previously been in GOP hands for nearly four decades.
MarkeyFTS File Photo
Potential Republican challengers listed in the AP report included state Sen. Greg Brophy of Wray, state Rep. Cory Gardner of Yuma, and Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck. We add to this list CU Regent Tom Lucero of Loveland and former state Senate Majority Leader Mark Hillman of Burlington.
At a Thursday evening political event in Denver, we caught up with Gardner, Lucero, and Hillman. While the three declined our offer to avoid a primary battle through a contest of rock-paper-scissors, it's clear that each brings unique attributes to the table.
We start with Lucero - he has had a solid through quiet tenure on CU's governing board. He has pleased conservatives with his support of ideological diversity but hasn't been as aggressive fighting CU's use of race and gender preferences as some might have hoped. As the campaign manager for Amendment 54 this year, he managed to prevail statewide in a year when 10 of 12 statewide initiatives lost. In a sea of conservatives, however, Lucero may struggle to point to hot-button ideological issues as a way to mobilize a base of primary support. His good looks will certain endear him with female voters.
Enter Gardner - one of the most fun legislators to watch in the current crop down at the Capitol. A former staffer for retiring U.S. Sen. Wayne Allard, Gardner knows the district well and has a good national perspective. Still in his thirties, he's a master of the press, a terrific speaker, and a tireless networker at public events. What remains to be seen is how viable Gardner could be in a general election. Has the 4th CD swung so blue that ties to Allard - well respected by the too few voters who know him - could hurt Gardner in a general election? Gardner may also face accusations that he's just a little too slick and cosmopolitan for the district.
Hillman is about as likable as they come. During his Senate tenure, he earned gushing praise by those on both sides of the aisle for his gentle temperament. He fell short in his 2006 bid for state Treasurer - but we attribute his defeat to factors outside his control, including up-ticket problems with Bob Beauprez's failed gubernatorial bid and being a victim of the wrong initials of "MH". Also in 2006, Beauprez suffered from a bloody primary battle against Marc Holtzman. While Hillman only narrowly lost, could it be that man voters thought they were actually voted against Holtzman? We heard from at least a few who made this mistake.
Each of the five men have viable leadership experience, but in an inevitably heated primary election still 19 months away, the winner's strategy - and any strategy to overcome Markey's likability and support from national Democrats - will likely come down to his ability to avoid being plagued as too socially conservative or obsessed with any one single issue. Musgrave became a national lightening rod after she come to the national forefront for her campaign to ban gay marriage.
It will also be interesting to see what happens with Brophy, a bright guy who has represented Wray at the Capitol for the last five years. Brophy's a solid conservative and a loyal legislator but needs to find a way to jump out of the pack. Buck's outspoken support for immigration reform may help mobilize opposition against him, but in a district where many are torn between the value of migrant labor and the problems associated with dramatic cultural shifts, what approach will sell voters?
Regardless of who ends up on the primary ballot in 2010, we hope that the debate doesn't center around gay marriage. It wouldn't sell us, and as the voters of the 4th CD have proven, it didn't sell them either.