Third survey since September to show evenly matched contest
Face The State Staff Report
A new national poll shows Colorado’s hotly contested race to replace retiring U.S. Senator Wayne Allard, R-Loveland, as neck and neck, with Schaffer leading Udall by a single point. The survey is the third since September to show a contest with no clear front runner in the contest.
In a survey taken by Rasumussen Reports this month, former U.S. Congressman Bob Schaffer, R-Ft. Collins, held a “statistically insignificant lead” over U.S. Rep. Mark Udall, at 44 to 43 percent.
SchafferThe campaign
While the Feb. 11 survey of 500 likely voters statewide presents a tight race, the details contrast different bases for support for the two candidates. According to Rasmussen, Schaffer leads by seven points with men, but trails by two points with women.
Udall is more popular with unaffiliated voters, earning 43 percent of such support, a double digit advantage over Schaffer’s 32 percent with independent respondents. And while Schaffer leads in households with married couples who have children still living at home, Udall is more popular with single respondents without children.
Schaffer leads when it comes to the number of respondents who view his candidacy in a positive light, but again just barely. Specifically, 48 percent of respondents viewed him “favorably,” with 35 percent viewing him “unfavorably.” Udall’s negatives were slightly higher, with 46 percent viewing him favorably and 39 percent viewing him unfavorably.
As Face The State has previously reported, Schaffer holds a strong registration advantage, with 130,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats in the state.
UdallUS Congress
This advantage, however, has been met with Udall’s strong fundraising advantage. According to The Denver Post, Schaffer raised “just under $673,000 in the last three months of [2007], about two-thirds of that from individual Colorado contributors. Udall raised just over $1.1 million for the final quarter, but he also outspent Schaffer. Udall now has about $3.6 million in cash, to Schaffer's $1.5 million." The latest poll numbers come amidst a mixed media environment for Schaffer, whose candidacy has been viewed with skepticism by reporters including the Post's Karen Crummy in an October 2007 column in which she cited unnamed GOP "power-brokers" as being resigned to a Udall victory.
Rasmussen’s numbers this month mirror a November survey from that polling firm, which showed Schaffer leading Udall 42 to 41 percent. In addition, as Face The State reported last October, a survey taken by Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli showed almost identical results.
According to Ciruli, his firm’s Sept. telephone poll of 504 statewide voters showed Udall leading Schaffer 36 percent to 35, with nine percent of respondents saying they hoped someone else would join the race and 21 percent remaining undecided. That poll was sponsored by the Economic Development Council of Colorado.
According to the most recent Rasmussen poll, the economy remains the top issue with 30 percent of voters surveyed. Seventeen percent of respondents picked the war in Iraq as their top concern. Immigration was most important for 15 percent of respondents.
Sorry, Mr. Rasmussen, but you got it wrong!
On February 20th, 2008 coldawg says:
No one can seriously believe that Colorado will vote for Bob Schaffer. We have to have improvment over the current occupant of the office, who has accomplished less that zero in his years in the Senate. I'll be voting for my first Democrat Senate candidate in thirty plus years. Maybe then we'll be rid of Shaffer's ilk!